Epidemiological Surveillance of pertussis in Minas Gerais: temporal trends and spatial patterns (2014–2024)

Abstract

Pertussis is an acute respiratory infection with worldwide distribution that can be prevented through immunization and represents a significant risk to child health. This study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of pertussis in Minas Gerais between 2014 and 2024, identifying high-risk areas and the temporal dynamics of the disease. This was a population-based ecological study using secondary data from the Minas Gerais Health Surveillance Portal. Generalized Additive Models (GAM) and spatial scan statistics were applied to detect spatiotemporal clusters. In Minas Gerais, 2,161 cases of pertussis were confirmed, with an average incidence of 1.95 per 100,000 inhabitants. The highest incidences were observed in the Central (6.47/100,000), Southern (3.86/100,000), and Northern Triângulo (2.42/100,000) macro-regions. The GAM-based graphical analysis revealed a decline in risk between 2015 and 2021, followed by a resurgence beginning in 2022. High-risk clusters were identified at different time points, particularly in 2024, involving the Northern, Northwestern, Jequitinhonha, Central, Western, Southern, Southwestern, and Central-Southern macro-regions. The study identified a cyclical and heterogeneous pattern of pertussis in Minas Gerais, with recrudescence after 2022 and high-risk clusters in vulnerable regions. These findings reinforce the need for continuous and georeferenced surveillance, with a focus on socioeconomically vulnerable areas, to prevent disease reemergence and support effective public health policies.