Trends of leprosy in children under fifteen years in Rondonópolis-MT (2007 to 2016)

DOI: 10.15343/0104-7809.2018420410321049

Abstract

Leprosy is a notifiable disease and should be controlled because it is considered a public health problem. The trend
analysis is relevant for contributing to concrete actions of epidemiological surveillance, in order to interrupt the
transmission chain. Therefore, it is possible that there is an increasing tendency of these cases in hyperendemic regions.
The objective of this study was to analyze the trends of leprosy variables in children under 15 in Rondonópolis (MT)
from 2007 to 2016. This was an epidemiological study of the ecological type, with a quantitative and descriptive
approach. The data are from the secondary source, the Notification System of Reported Diseases (SINAN. The variables
studied were sociodemographic and clinical. For analysis, polynomial regression models were used for the time series.
The trends were considered statistically significant when the models presented a p-value <0.05. The Shapiro-Wilk test
(S-W) was applied to verify normality of the model-adjusted residuals. To explain the percentage (%) of the variability,
the coefficient of determination (R2) was presented and software R. The results indicate a total of 139 cases, with a
decreasing tendency for males (R²:0.40, S-W0.95) and for the operational class an increasing tendency for multibacillary
cases (R²: 0, 35: S-W0.95). Despite the high number of cases, most of the trends were statistically stable and decreasing,
indicating that the actions of leprosy surveillance in the municipality are being effective in controlling the disease in
this age group.